INTRODUCTION
First
Coup D’etat in the Republic of Turkey's history took place on 27 May 1960. 12
March 1987 Memorandum, 12 September 1980 and 28 February 1997 Coups followed
this first coup. In the last 10 years, Turkey has also experienced a military
e-memorandum on 2007 and finally an attempted and failed Coup D’etat on 15 July
2016. Republic of Turkey’s recent political history since 1960 can be named as
history of coups. There are different dynamics and underlying distinctive
causes in each military intervention as each coup has taken place in different
time period and their methods and actors are different from each other.
However, it can be seen that there are common reasons and similar fundamental
mechanisms paving the way for coups around the world. Among them, we can count weakness of
democratic political culture, failures of civil authorities, legitimacy crisis,
institutional structure of military-civil relations; and in fact all of them are
intertwined.
2016
Coup D’etat attempt has shown that Turkey is still actively struggling with
military tutelage and a military intervention can be carried out even in a
period when conditions leading to coups are not present. From this point of
view, we can conclude that it will not be sufficient to take the military
intervention in politics as a “national” problem and to address only internal
dynamics in order to understand the reasons of politization tendencies of the military.
Because, internal dynamics have mostly been outcomes of external dynamics. In
other words; international system during the coups has significantly influenced
domestic developments. Thus, this study
aims to analyse the coups in Republic of Turkey, their international dimension
from a wider framework and assessing them taking the international conjoncture during
the coups into consideration.
1Demir,Osman,
Üzümcü, Adem, ‘Türkiye’de Yaşanan Ara Rejimlerin Sebepleri Üzerine Bir
İnceleme’, Gazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 1/2002, s.155-182
THE RELATION
BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM AND COUP
D’ETATS
Militaries
are not actors carrying on their existence independent
from the society they are in and from the global system. Militaries’ activities
are influenced by power relations both in domestic and global system. At the
same time, they have influence on these relations. Thus, militaries are both
dependent and independent variables.
Looking
at the the coups worldwide, we can see that international conjoncture during
the coups has a facilitating effect on coups. Militaries can be supported in
national and international scopes. Increasing politization tendencies within
the armies can be related to this support.
There
are very strong evidences supporting that coups have been realized by external
powers’ direct or indirect intervention. “For what reasons and how external
powers support coups direct or indirectly” is an important question that
requires an answer. Guillermo O’Donnell’s approach may help answering this
question: ‘’ Sometimes conflicts and
inconsistencies between national political/economical line and international
“order” can increase. This increase distributes the political, economic and bureaucratic
alliances surrounding civil politics. Coups are used as an important tool to
reorganize the system of alliances and bring national political line into
conformity with international political and economical conjuncture.’’2
Some inferences can be made out of this approach. There are two main actors
which play role on the realizing of coups:
1. Groups/classes
whose economical or political interests conflict with the current government
2. International
powers (Coups can be realized with direct and indirect support of external
powers.)
Coups
are usually realized by co-operation between opposition classes and
international powers which are these two actors.
2
Balta, Evren, ‘Geçmişten Günümüze Darbeler’, Toplumsal Tarih, 273, Eylül 2016,
s.54,55
Guillermo
O’Donnell explains coups with “bureaucratic
authoritarianism” model. As mentioned above, “coups take place during economic/political crisis periods when
conflicts and inconsistencies between national political/economical line and
international “order” increase and it is used as an important tool to resolve
the crisis.” In other words, by means of coups, conflicting national and
international conjonctures are tried to be synchronized. According to O’Donnell,
populist strategies pursued by civil governments have a role in increasing this
cleavage between international and national fields. We can see that the
governments can usually act more comfortably with these strategies against
international powers’ interests by taking support of their peoples. In fact, by
this way, national interests are tried to be held superior to the interests of
the international powers. Thus, the only way for the dominant powers in global
system is to overthrow such governments which have taken the support of people
is to organize coups and construct bureaucratic authoritarian state forms by
means of military regimes.
It
will be appropriate to explain coups realized in Turkey with this approach.
Turkey had to face military interventions in periods when it began showing
tendencies for independence and therefore acting against the interests of
external powers. It is possible to examine the coups experienced in Turkey
based on the model presented by O’Donnell. Political developments which have
taken place before and after 1960, 1971, 1980, 1997 and 2016 shows that an
analogy can be drawn between O’Donnell’s model and Turkey’s coups based on
Turkish-American relations.
3
‘Darbeler ve ABD’, Al Jazeera Türk, 24 Ağustos 2016
4
Erhan, Çağrı, ‘Türkiye’de Darbeler ve ABD’, Türkiye Gazetesi, 24 Temmuz 2016
3) COUP TRENDS in the
WORLD SINCE 1950 and COUPS in TURKEY
Jonathan
M Powell & Clayton L. Thyne has put
forward new data on coups between years 1950 and 2011 and the trends coups
follow in certain periods in their study called “A new dataset”.
In
their study, they have come to the conclusion that between 1950 and 2010, there
had been a total of 457 coup attempts. Between these years, coups had taken
place in 94 different countries. As it is seen the graph, coups are
agglomerated in certain regions of the world. It is possible to say that it is
common in underdeveloped countries and regions. Percentage distribution is;
Africa: 36.5%, Latin America: 31.9%, Middle East: 15.8%, Asia: 13.1% and
Europe: 2.6%. As seen in the graph, Turkey is at a location geopolitically
quite near to the Middle East and North Africa regions where coups are
intensely realized. It is inevitable that these political fluctuations shall
have effects on Turkey.
5 Powell, Jonathan M., Thyne, Clayton L., ‘’Global instances of coups from 1950 to
2010: A new dataset’’, Journal of Peace Research 48(2), 2011, s.255
6
Powell, Jonathan M., Thyne, Clayton L.,
‘’Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset’’, Journal
of Peace Research 48(2), 2011, s.255,256
Above
graph illustrates the frequency of coups worldwide between 1950 and 2010. Main
inferences made out of this graph and trends obtained about frequency of coups
shall be beneficial to explain coups in Turkey within an international context.
Some inferences would be:
1)
Most general inference made out of this graph is that throughout the world,
coups have occured in the form of certain global fluctuations. In our
globalizing world, a coup which takes place in a part of the world will
unavoidably influence other countries as well. Therefore, it will be inevitable
to grasp the analysis of these coups within this wide framework.
2)
There has been a significant decline worldwide in the frequencies of coups and
number of successful coups.
3)
While there had been an increasing trend of the number of coups from 1950 to
early 1980s; there has been a decreasing trend in general since the end of
1980s.
4)
Mid 1960s and 70s and early 1990s are the peak points of the number of military
interventions.
7
Powell, Jonathan M., Thyne, Clayton L.,
‘’Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset’’, Journal
of Peace Research 48(2), 2011, s.255,256
5) We can see that there is a significant
decline in the number of coups in the 21st century. However, since 2003, there
has been a remarkable increase in the rates of success in coup attempts. It is
concluded that out of 18 coups, 12 (67%) had been successful from 2003 to
2011. Namely, this rate has increased
from 49.7% to 67% compared to the period before 2003.
International System,
1960, 1971 and 1980 Military Interventions
During
the Cold War; super powers have used coup d’etats as an effective tool to
integrate the third world countries into their blocs. Through these coups,
opponent governments had been overthrown. Ideological conflict between East and
West has affected Middle Eastern countries including Turkey deeply. 1960, 1971
and 1980 Military Interventions in Turkey also took place during Cold War
period in which an increase has been seen in the number of coups. So, to
analyze the underlying reasons of these coups; one should discuss them within
the context of the bipolar system of the Cold War.
During
the Cold War, the society and politics in Turkey has been divided as right and
left wing; as it has been in the International System. The ideological conflict
during the Cold war took also effect in Turkey. Especially the youth movements
in Turkey were influenced by these streams of thought. In the period during 12
March 1997 Memorandum and 12 September 1980 coup; leftists in the Turkey were substantially
influenced by left current which showed influence in the world. External powers
has fueled the conflicts between leftists and rightists to cause a chaos. By
doing these, they were forming a basis for a potential military intervention.
8
Balta,
Evren, ‘Geçmişten Günümüze Darbeler’, Toplumsal Tarih, 273, Eylül 2016, s.51,52
9Boztaş,
Asena, ‘Türk Demokrasisine Müdahaleler’, Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi Sosyal
Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt 9, 2012, s.65-73
The
Reasons for Declining in The Numbers of Coups on a Global Scale Since Late
1980s
-With
the end of the Cold War, USA and Russia largely abandoned their strategy of
supporting coups. In other words, as a result of the change in the global
system; the frequency of coups decreased substantially.
-
This strategic and tactical change of great powers coincided with a number of
changes in the dominant international norms and values. In the new era beginning
after Cold War; military interventions have begun to be questioned in the
international system; in other words, they began losing legitimacy. The reason for
this change is that democratization processes accelerated on a global scale and
the number of countries which adopt democratic values and institutions
increased . Even if some coups took place in this new era, within a short time
interim regimes handed over the authority to the civil governments.
- In parallel with the democratization waves;
the reactions against politization of the militaries and the number of
mechanisms that provide control over militaries have increased. These circumstances
also had an effect on the decreasing of numbers of coups after 1980.
-
The fourth reason of this decline after 1980 is rising levels of welfare on a
global scale. Because, there is a reverse causal relationship between the
prosperity levels and internal conflicts within countries. In the economically stable
countries, coups can not easily be justified or legitimized.
-The
effect of golabalization is also important for this decline. Because the states
which are well integrated into global economic system try to attract foreign
capital into their countries. Atmosphere of uncertainty, unpredictability and political
instability the coups bring about
10
Frıedman, Uri, ‘The Thailand Exception: Are Coups a Thing of the Past?’, The
Atlantic, May 23, 2014
discourage
the foreign investors. From this perspective, as states increase their international
economic integration; the democratization process in their countries accelerates
and the possibility of coup which we can think as a step backwards from
democratization decreases. (capitalist peace theory)
Turkey After 1980 Coup
D’etat
The
democratization process in Turkey which started in 1945 had been interrupted
again by the 1980 Coup. After 1980 intervention, Turkey resumed its
democratization efforts. On August 1981, a legislation on constituent assembly was
enacted. On November 1982, a referendum on the new constitution was held. However,
a properly transition to democracy has been achieved with the 6 November 1983 general elections
through which Anavatan Party has come to
power alone. So, 3 years later, armed forces transfered the power to the civil
government. The 1987 constitutional amendment was the first step towards
weakening the military tutelage in Turkey. All of these devolopments are
important for showing how the wave of democratization which was dominant on a
global scale in 1980s influenced the politics in Turkey. In parallel with dominant
trend in the world; after 1980 coup, Turkey had not experienced any military
intervention until 1997.
The Third Wave of De-Democratization?
/ 28 February 1997 Military Intervention
According
to some views; the world entered into a third wave of de - democratization in
1990s. After Cold War; ‘radical islam’ has begun to be perceived as the primary
threat against Western world and the current international order instead of
socialism. In this period, the Western world has started to perceive some other
civilizations as a threat to its existence. In his famous book named “The Clash
of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order(1993)”, Huntington
11
Chacha, Mwita, Powell, Jonathan, ‘Economic Interdependence and Post-Coup
Democratization’, Journal Democratization, 08 Dec. 2016, s.19,20
presents
this new approach. Supporters of this view argue that since early 1990s; great
powers, notably USA, have launched some implicit and explicit interventions against
the Islamic world. Even if this view would be perceived as a conspiracy theory;
it can draw an international framework for the February 28 military memorandum
which is also called as the "postmodern coup". With this memorandum;
the conservative and religious people, who were described as "reactionary
and Islamist," were chosen as main target. Furthermore, it is possible to evaluate
2007 E-memorandum and 15 July 2016 failed coup d’etat within this conjectural
third wave of de-democratization .
The Coup D’etats of 21st
Century and The July 15th Failed Coup
Attempt In Turkey
We
observe a significant decrease in the numbers of coups in the 21st century. We
see that coups are less common in this century compared to the early 60s, 70s
and 80s. On the other hand; since 2003, the number of successful coup attempts showed
a significant increase. So, even they are not so prevalent; coups are still notable
factors that can affect the political relations in the global system.
As
different from previous terms; in the 21st century, coups became widespread
among democratic countries. If we look at the coups taking place after 2000; we
see that many of them has been carried out against democracies. From 2000 to
present; several elected governments have been overthrown by coups. Within last
10 years; democracies of countries from different regions like Egypt(2013),
Thailand(2014), Honduras(2009) and Fiji(2006) faced coups. Since 2000, 2/3 of ousted
leaders were the leaders of countries ruled by democracies. So, July 15 coup is
not an extraordinary event just because it took place in a democratic country.
12
Bersay, A.Kemal, ‘Huntington ve demokrasi’, Anlayış Dergisi, Temmuz 2006
13
Bell, Curtis, Powell, Jonathan, ‘’Turkey’s coup attempt was unusual, but not for
the reasons you might expect’’, The Washington Post, July 22, 2016
In
fact, 15 July coup was in line with the general trend in the world. What made
this coup exceptional is that the coup attempt failed thanks to the resistance
of people. In other words, The reason for
this failure is the absence of necessary conditions for a successful coup
attempt before July, 15. But what are these necessary conditions?
1.
Good
Timing: Timing plays an important role as a catalyst to bring
coups
to a successful end. This is why a lot of coups have been carried out right
before elections. Firstly; military chooses this undemocratic way to change the
election results in their favor. Secondly; due to the fact that people become
more mobilized in the electoral period, the support of people for the coup increases.
As can be seen in the figure below; about half of the coups aganist democracies
in the last 10 years has been carried
out a short while before or after the
elections.
However; when 15 July attempt was carried out;
there was no upcoming election.
Unrest of People: Whether
the ruling government takes the support of its people or not is an important
determinant for the result of a coup. If we look at the coups which took place
in Egypt, Burundi, Honduras and Thailand recently; we observe mass
demonstrations and protests against ruling leaders and governments before
coups. In other words; political instability, civil war and chaos in these
countries prepared the appropriate conditions for a coup. Different from these
countries; Erdoğan and ruling government were highly
14
Bell, Curtis, Powell, Jonathan, ‘’Turkey’s coup attempt was unusual, but not
for the reasons you might expect’’, The Washington Post, July 22, 2016
supported
by a large portion of the people. This popular support was the biggest
challenge for the putschists. Because at that night, the coup attempt was prevented
by the people itself.
People’s Support for the
Coup: In the countries like Egypt and Thailand,
middle-class regarded military as liberators and supported coups with a hope of
political stability and economic recovery. The democracy culture were not
well-devoloped in these countries. In literature, this situation is
conceptualised as “middle-class military coup”.
However,
before July 15, Turkey’s political and economic situation was much better than the
above mentioned countries like Egypt and Thailand. Also, by taking a lessons
from its past and gaining experience against putschism, Turkish people have
developped a more powerful democracy culture and gained strength against the
threat of putschism. Thus, because of the lack of these three conditions; the coup
could not achieve its objective.
To
sum up; 15 July coup was an extraordinary example for the history of coups.
Because the conditions where the coup has taken place were very different from
past experiences. The 15 July deviated from the coup trend which began in the
early 2000s.
4) Global Democratization
And De-Democratization Trends And Coups In Turkey
In
the globalizing World, democratization movements or de-democratization attempts
like military coups taking place in a country inevitably spread to the other
countries. From this point of view, Huntington suggests that democratization or
de-democratization movements have had impacts in different magnitudes in many
different countries. He has asserted that the World has experienced 3
democratization, 2 de-democratization waves since 1800s. Within this framework,
we can consider Turkey’s coups as reverse democracy waves.
15
Frıedman, Uri, ‘The Thailand Exception: Are Coups a Thing of the Past?’, The
Atlantic, May 23, 2014
Table:
Democratization and reverse waves in the world
In
this graph, values in brackets illustrates increase and decrease in the number
of democratic countries. Events which initiated the first wave had been
American (1783) and French (1789) revolutions. Democracy has spreased to the
World with these revolutions. Modernization and democratization movements and
the transition to the Republican system in the last period of the Ottoman
Empire also had taken place at the same periods.This period is a period when
similar transitions have occured not only in the Ottoman Empire, but also in
other Empires. In the last period of the Ottoman Empire, some interventions
which can be identified as reverse waves against the sultans have taken place. But,
overthrowing of Abdülaziz by the Janissaries is widely accepted as the first
military coup in Turkish political history.
1st
democratization wave has reversed by Mussolini’s coming into power in Italy in
1922. Years between 1922 and 1942 is the period of one-party regime and
authoritarian govenment. However, similar tendencies had been observed in other
countries in this period as well as Turkey and Italy. We can see that the
second wave began with the end of 2nd World war and beginning of decolonization
wave. This democratization wave which began on 1950s had
16Demir,Osman,
Üzümcü, Adem, ‘Türkiye’de Yaşanan Ara Rejimlerin Sebepleri Üzerine Bir
İnceleme’, Gazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 1/2002, s.177
shown
impacts on Asian, European, African and South American continents. As can be
seen from the graph, this is the period where transition to democracy is
highest. We have also observed that a parallel important democratization wave
had begun with the 15 May 1950 elections which is accepted as the first
democratic election in Republic of Turkey’s history. In other words, this wave
had also effected Turkey.
Militarist
period which began in 1960s is perceived as a 2nd reverse wave. First two
military interventions in Turkish history, 27 May 1960 and 12 March 1971 coups,
have occured during the 2nd reverse waves.
Third
and the last democratization wave had begun with the overthrowing of the
dictatorship in Portugal in 1974. This wave is still proceeding according to
Huntington. Huntington states that there has been a rapid increase again in the
number democratic states in global system following the collapse of the Soviet
Union in 1989. But, he has not identified this as a 4th wave. On the other
hand, there are opinions which identify this as a 4th wave. However, as mentioned
above, there are also opinions which suggests that a 3rd reverse wave has begun
in 90s. If we take this opinion as a base, I believe that we can consider 1997,
2007 and 2017 military interventions in Turkey within the international
framework. Coups which have been observed in rather democratic countries since
2000s are supporting this thesis. But, as these coups are less in numbers
compared to the past waves and not common worldwide, we cannot certainly
identify this tendency as a wave. It is worth questioning and thinking whether
this is a 3rd reverse wave. Observers do not foresee a 4th democratization yet
for thefuture. It is widely thought that hybrid regimes have begun to spread
contrary to what had been expected in the aftermath of the collapse of the
Soviet Union.
17
Ö. Kaboğlu İbrahim, ‘Demokratikleşme Dalgaları ve Türkiye...’, BirGün,
26.02.2015
18
Kurmel,
Ömer Aytek, ‘Demokratikleşme Dalgaları’, Cherkessıa, 04 Mayıs 2015
CONCLUSION:
Turkey,
with its geopolitical location and deep-rooted past, has influenced
developments in the global system and been highly influenced by these
developments. Therefore, it is not useful to analyze the democratization
trends, military interventions and anti-democratization trends observed since
the late Ottoman era independent from the waves and trends in the global
system. For this reason, it is necessary
to analyze the coups taking the international conjoncture into consideration.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1) Demir,Osman,
Üzümcü, Adem, ‘Türkiye’de Yaşanan Ara Rejimlerin Sebepleri Üzerine Bir
İnceleme’, Gazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 1/2002
2) Balta,
Evren, ‘Geçmişten Günümüze Darbeler’, Toplumsal Tarih, 273, Eylül 2016
3) ‘Darbeler
ve ABD’, Al Jazeera Türk, 24 Ağustos 2016
4) Erhan,
Çağrı, ‘Türkiye’de Darbeler ve ABD’, Türkiye Gazetesi, 24 Temmuz 2016
5) Powell,
Jonathan M., Thyne, Clayton L., ‘’Global
instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset’’, Journal of Peace
Research 48(2), 2011
6) Boztaş,
Asena, ‘Türk Demokrasisine Müdahaleler’, Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi Sosyal
Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt 9, 2012
7) Frıedman,
Uri, ‘The Thailand Exception: Are Coups a Thing of the Past?’, The Atlantic,
May 23, 2014
8) Chacha,
Mwita, Powell, Jonathan, ‘Economic Interdependence and Post-Coup
Democratization’, Journal Democratization, 08 Dec. 2016
9) Bersay,
A.Kemal, ‘Huntington ve demokrasi’, Anlayış Dergisi, Temmuz 2006
10) Bell,
Curtis, Powell, Jonathan, ‘’Turkey’s coup attempt was unusual, but not for the
reasons you might expect’’, The Washington Post, July 22, 2016
11) Ö.
Kaboğlu İbrahim, ‘Demokratikleşme Dalgaları ve Türkiye...’, BirGün, 26.02.2015
12) Kurmel, Ömer Aytek, ‘Demokratikleşme
Dalgaları’, Cherkessıa, 04 Mayıs 2015
15) Nisen, Max, ‘Coups D'Etat Have Totally Gone
Out Of Style’, Business Insider, Jul. 3, 2013
16) Andrea
Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz, ‘’Autocrats now more vulnerable to being
ousted by revolt’’, The Washington Post, April 9, 2014..
